Proposed operational plan · Revised September 27, 2026

90-day pilot: learning period outline

Planning document only. Phoenix is not open, is not accepting applications, has no selected property, and has no funded pilot. Figures below are illustrative assumptions for discussion — not quotes, forecasts, or commitments.

1. Purpose of the pilot

Before a larger residence, Phoenix may explore a short 90-day operational learning period using a written block of up to four rooms in existing lodging. The goal is to test safe daily operations, documentation, referrals, and budgeting — not to prove long-term effectiveness or to require automatic discharge at day 90.

Where residents consent, Phoenix may seek voluntary follow-up contact at about 6 and 12 months after exit. That follow-up is optional and is not a condition of stay.

Related research on recovery housing (different model): an Oxford House randomized trial (150 participants, 24 months) studied self-governed recovery homes and is not validation of a four-room lodging pilot. See PMC1586125. Phoenix does not claim those outcomes.

2. How the pilot would be structured

3. Coverage and emergencies (proposed — staffing not claimed)

Public operations cannot rely on a single person alone. Before admissions, Phoenix must show a written coverage plan with named roles (primary contact, backup/on-call, escalation), including nights and weekends as applicable. Detailed employment-conflict and hours controls stay in internal board/counsel files — not in public fundraising copy.

These items are opening requirements, including independent oversight and conflicts review before any pilot admissions — not only after a pilot. This document does not claim that paid staff, backups, insurance, or oversight already exist.

4. Illustrative costs and revenue (not a full budget)

Earlier “rent-only” sketches understated food and omitted other costs. The scenario below is a partial illustration for four adults over three months. It is not “often” a real-world total and is not a local quote.

Food benchmark (USDA)

USDA August 2026 Low-Cost Food Plan for adults ages 20–50: about $275.70/month (female) and $317.20/month (male) for all meals and snacks prepared at home.

Source: USDA CNPP Cost of Food monthly reports (August 2026 Low-Cost Plan; source page updated September 24, 2026). This is a national benchmark, not a Wilkes County market survey, not adjusted here for household-size economies, and not an exact participant mix.

Illustrative four-adult food for three months (shared 4-person household assumption / no extra household-size uplift in the endpoints below): $3,308.40–$3,806.40. USDA household-size note: a shared 4-person food household generally needs no extra household-size adjustment under USDA tables; four independent single-person food households may each need about +20%. Do not assume communal savings without a written kitchen and meal plan. Limited cooking facilities may raise costs. Donated food only offsets cost when supply is documented and reliable. Resident benefits (SNAP, etc.) are not assumed or controlled by Phoenix.

Partial cost scenario (example assumptions)

LineIllustrative amount
Lodging block rent ($1,600/month × 3)$4,800
Food (USDA Low-Cost illustrative band above)$3,308.40–$3,806.40
Insurance rider (illustrative only)$300–$800
Partial cost subtotal$8,408.40–$9,406.40
Fee revenue if 4 residents pay in full for 3 months$4,800
Illustrative gap (partial costs only)$3,608.40–$4,606.40

Still not included: staffing/relief coverage, deposits, transport, laundry/supplies, administration, compliance, reserves, and other site-specific costs. A full opening budget and stress test require actual site, insurance, and staffing quotes.

Therefore, rent-only “go / no-go” language is misleading. Viability depends on committed subsidy and cash flow for the whole period, not rent matching fees alone.

5. Revenue illustrations (not forecasts)

ScenarioMonthly fee revenue
Pilot: 4 residents, full collection$1,600
Pilot: 75% occupied and 90% collection$1,080
Later ceiling: 12 residents, full collection$4,800
Later ceiling: 75% occupied and 90% collection$3,240

Do not treat speculative grants, an unsigned $600 bed contract, Medicaid, or unpaid volunteer labor as guaranteed revenue. Clinical services and payer billing, if any, remain qualified external/provider-specific work — never presumed housing revenue.

6. Proposed readiness checkpoints (pending evidence)

These are requirements to evidence before any pilot admissions — not achievements, and not deferred until after a pilot.

CheckpointRole owner (proposed)EvidenceDecision
Independent oversight / conflicts reviewBoard / counselConflict note; independent review recordedProceed / conditions / pause
Lawful site / capacity / written controlBoard + property counselSigned block/lease; capacity notesProceed / conditions / pause
InsuranceBoard / brokerBinder before move-inProceed / pause
Whole-period funding + transition reserveBoard / finance reviewerCash in org accounts; signed commitmentsProceed / pause
Reviewed resident terms & fair accessCounsel + boardSigned draft set; accommodations processProceed / conditions
Trained coverage / backupSite operator / boardNamed roles; backup contactsProceed / pause
Emergency / overdose / fire plansEmergency coordinatorPosted sheets; drill/log practiceProceed / conditions
Medication self-management & referralsOperatorWritten practice; referral listProceed / conditions
Safe food preparationOperatorKitchen/equipment permissions; food planProceed / conditions
Transportation planOperatorWritten optionsProceed / conditions
Private minimal records / consentRecords custodianForms; access/retention rulesProceed / conditions
Referral pathways confirmedOperator / boardNamed accepting contacts; documented eligibility/access process; consent and transport steps; verified availability — acknowledgments of interest alone are not enough; no guaranteed admissionProceed / conditions

During the learning period

Unresolved safety issues or cash shortfalls should pause new admissions while maintaining safe, lawful continuity for current residents — not abrupt displacement.

7. Later facility (contingent — not approved)

A larger residence (planning ceiling up to 12) is a contingent plan, not a final approved facility. Before purchase/lease commitment or expansion: site due diligence and independent approval; capital/operating budgets based on quotes; permits/licensing determination; insurance and staffing; sustainable downside funding; pilot lessons and resident feedback; exit/relocation contingency.

No automatic expansion at 90 days or when eight residents pay. Employment may be one voluntary individualized goal alongside education, benefits access, health, and stable housing — Phoenix does not promise jobs or penalize disability.

8. What to measure (proposed for board adoption before opening)

With only four people, report counts carefully and suppress identifying public detail. No “100% success” marketing and no compelled stories or photos. Board reviews definitions and targets before opening. These measures are recommendations until adopted.

9. How to help

“Help build a safe, accountable path to stable housing.”

Formal operating policies and resident agreements remain drafts pending board and professional review. This outline proposes operational planning detail; it does not silently amend those drafts.

Daniel Brown, Founder · info@phoenixfoundationsnc.org · (336) 559-9569 · https://phoenixfoundationsnc.org

Document library